© Lauren Baxter 2021. 

And The ARIA Could Go To…

 

From breaking ARIA chart records to her expected clean sweep at this year’s ceremony, forget the Chinese zodiac, as far as we’re concerned, it’s the year of the dancing monkey thanks to Tones & I. To get you ready for the Australian music industry’s night of nights, notorious non-psychic Lauren Baxter has put together The Music’s annual ARIA predictions.

 

Album Of The Year 

Dean Lewis – A Place We KnewHilltop Hoods – The Great ExpanseRÜFÜS DU SOL – SolaceThe Teskey Brothers – Run Home SlowThelma Plum – Better In Blak
Who will win? Dean Lewis
Who we think should win? Thelma Plum

First awarded in 1987, the coveted Album Of The Year category looks to recognise excellence, innovation and achievement. Trailing behind Byron-based wunderkind Tones & I, this year both Hilltop Hoods and The Teskey Brothers picked up an impressive seven nominations each for their respective records. It puts them in good stead for the big one – it’s also the first time either have been nominated in the category – but Dean Lewis’ ARIA #1, A Place We Knew, is the safe bet here.

The Australian singer-songwriter has made waves across the country since the release of his 2016 single of the same name but 2019 sees the rest of the world paying attention. In July this year, Lewis hit one billion streams for the lead single off A Place We Knew, Be Alright. Moreover, he went double Platinum in Australia and played everywhere from Splendour to Ellen. It all bodes well.

Close on his tail are Adelaide’s Hilltop Hoods. They’ve had a huge year and have the fanbase to back it up. If they don’t nab Album Of The Year, the hip hop trio are well placed for Best Group and Best Hip Hop Release. Unfortunately for The Teskey Brothers, it’ll be a case of ‘always a bridesmaid, never a bride’. Their best chance on the night is to take out Blues & Roots.

RÜFÜS DU SOL shouldn’t be a complete write-off, especially considering Solace peaked at #2 on the ARIA charts and soared up the Dance/Electronic chart in the US, landing at #6. However, first out the gate, we’re doubtful they can go the full distance back on home soil. Solace’s release last October might be a distant memory for the Voting Academy who cast their votes in September this year and the group have had their focus overseas. Thelma Plum’s Better In Blak, our pick of the category for its brutal, heart-on-its-sleeve honesty, seems unlikely to make a dent in proceedings other than its win for Best Cover Art. Plum shines over added Paul power – both McCartney and Kelly feature on the album – arriving with a debut that’s confident and assured, making her one of the most exciting voices in the industry. Academy, take note.

Best Male Artist

Dean Lewis  A Place We KnewGuy Sebastian – ChoirHayden James – Between UsMatt Corby – Rainbow ValleyPaul Kelly – Nature
Who will win? Dean Lewis
Who we think should win? Paul Kelly

Dean Lewis lost all the categories he was up for at the 2018 ceremony but it looks like he’ll Be Alright in 2019. Especially when you consider ARIA’s propensity to award Best Album and Best Artist to the same person.

As for the rest of the nominees, we can probably rule out Paul Kelly considering he’s won the award previously (2017, 1998 and 1997). This year sees the seminal Australian musician pick up his 18th nomination in the category and if he were to add it to his collection, he’d overtake Diesel, John Farnham and Alex Lloyd to hold the record for most wins here. It would be a deserving record for the beloved songwriter – whose bold work on Nature sees him putting poems from the likes of Sylvia Plath, Dylan Thomas and Gerard Manley Hopkins to music. He knows to celebrate the little things. Triple J fave Matt Corby nabs his third nomination in the category and it’s the first we’ve seen for dark horse Hayden James. Although neither look likely for the win, between us, the future looks bright.

The only artist likely to give Lewis a race for the title is Guy Sebastian – this year sees the former Australian Idol winner pick up his seventh nomination in a category he’s never won. What’s that saying again? Seventh time’s a charm? Might be worth putting a combination bet down.

Best Female Artist

Amy Shark – Mess Her UpJessica Mauboy – Little ThingsJulia Jacklin – CrushingThelma Plum – Better In BlakTones & I – Dance Monkey 
Who will win? Tones & I
Who we think should win? Julia Jacklin

If you’ve managed to escape the Dance Monkey frenzy you must be living under the proverbial rock. With the most nominations of any artist, Tones & I looks to take a clean sweep of her categories. Even considering Toni Watson’s record-breaking run on the charts happened post nominations, this burgeoning artist’s unique voice burrowed its way into the nation’s collective consciousness long before votes were cast in September.

It means Jessica Mauboy, who won the award in 2013, will find her eighth nomination in the category fruitless. She’s fast approaching the legendary Kylie Minogue who holds 14 nominations for Best Female Artist, only winning once.

Amy Shark is in for a shot too. Picking up Best Female Artist in 2018, the Academy might follow the category’s trend and go two for two. This means Plum and Julia Jacklin, who’s album is as crushing as its title suggests and gets our vote, will have to look elsewhere for the shiny metal statue.

Best Group

5 Seconds Of Summer – EasierBirds Of Tokyo – Good LordHilltop Hoods – The Great ExpanseRÜFÜS DU SOL – SolaceThe Teskey Brothers – Run Home Slow
Who will win? Hilltop Hoods
Who we think should win? The Teskey Brothers

Before we begin, can we have a moment for the women who were snubbed in this category? We didn’t realise a prerequisite for success as a group was being a man? Do better, Voting Academy.

2019 marks the fourth nomination in Best Group for 5SOS, Hilltop Hoods and Birds Of Tokyo. 5SOS took it out last year and it’s unlikely they’ll back it up with a single that peaked at #12 on the charts – the last time a group took it out two years in a row was The Cruel Sea in 1994.

A big year on home turf for Hilltop Hoods – filling in for Chance The Rapper at Splendour In The Grass, supporting Eminem’s huge stadium romp and their very own arena tour – could see them first across the line here, nipping The Teskey Brothers and RÜFÜS DU SOL’s chances in the bud. Especially considering it seems unlikely for any of the artists nominated here to pick up Album Of The Year. Despite the gravity of its lyrics, Birds Of Tokyo’s single Good Lord won’t be enough to secure this category against the Album Of The Year nominees. Oozing with grit and soul, Run Home Slow, sees a band on form, making them our pick. Even with a voice that good, The Teskey Brothers play off each other’s strengths to deliver an even stronger album.

Breakthrough Artist

G Flip – About UsStella Donnelly – Beware Of The DogsThe Teskey Brothers – Run Home SlowThelma Plum – Better In BlakTones & I – Dance Monkey
Who will win? Tones & I
Who we think should win? Stella Donnelly

It’s probable Tones & I will clean up this year, with a single no less, but the four full-length records nominated here are all worthy of the title. And none more so than Stella Donnelly’s Beware Of The Dogs.

Her intelligent songwriting and important storytelling make Beware Of The Dogs one of this year’s best releases and Donnelly’s voice seems vital in the Australian music landscape. Album Of The Year nominees Thelma Plum, with her Paul McCartney-approved Better In Blak, and The Teskey Brothers, for Run Home Slow, will also come up empty-handed.

That’s not to say Dance Monkey isn’t deserving – none of us can remember a time in which an Australian artist blew up as fast as Watson – and when it comes to breaking through, she pretty much wrote the manual. If she is to win, Watson will follow in Ruel’s footsteps – he too was the only artist nominated last year without an album out and took the title.

Best Independent Release 

Angie McMahon – Salt; G Flip – About UsJulia Jacklin – CrushingThe Teskey Brothers – Run Home SlowTones & I – The Kids Are Coming
Who will win? Tones & I
Who we think should win? Julia Jacklin

So The Teskey Brothers don’t get suited and booted for no reason, they could very easily take home Best Independent Release for Run Home Slow but Best Blues & Roots Album seems more likely for the four-piece. And while Tones & I’s inclusion had us raising our eyebrows and consulting the category’s criteria sheet, you’d be daft to make any other call. Even if The Kids Are Coming just made it into the mix with a 30 August release date.

Elsewhere it’s a strong category for women, Jacklin and Angie McMahon releasing two of the year’s best records. They are the two that stand out with the most independent charm. Jacklin picked up six nominations for Crushing, her intimate and revealing follow-up to 2016’s Don’t Let The Kids Win, but her best chance to capitalise is in the Adult Contemporary category. Salt too is an impressive debut from McMahon worthy of the title but she might have to make do with the prestigious Grulke Prize for Developing Non-US Act she was awarded at SXSW.

Original article: The Music November 2019 Issue

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